Michael Saylor outlines scenarios for Bitcoin’s $49M price target

The future of Bitcoin and the mining industry has never looked brighter, according to H.C. Wainwright, following the most highly anticipated gathering in Bitcoin’s 15-year history held in Nashville, Tennessee. 

The Bitcoin 2024 event saw over 20,000 attendees, including two presidential candidates, former U.S. president and Republican nominee Donald J. Trump, multiple U.S. Senators including Cynthia Lummis, and industry leaders such as MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor.

"It was refreshing for the entire Bitcoin community to hear the overwhelming support for both Bitcoin and the mining industry from several U.S. politicians,” H.C. Wainwright wrote.

Donald Trump’s speech at the conference, the first by a U.S. president at a Bitcoin event, was a major highlight. He compared the primary coin to the steel industry of 100 years ago and outlined a plan to make the U.S. the "crypto capital of the planet" and the "Bitcoin superpower of the world." 

His plan includes supporting Bitcoin mining and AI expansion, creating a national Bitcoin stockpile, establishing a crypto presidential advisory council, and defending the right to self-custody of crypto. The Republican nominee also called for rejecting a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), terminating current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, shutting down "Operation Choke Point 2.0," and creating a regulatory framework for stablecoins.

Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Senator Lummis also proposed Bitcoin accumulation strategies. RFK pledged to transfer the U.S. government's Bitcoin holdings to the Treasury and purchase 550 Bitcoin daily until a reserve of at least 4 million Bitcoin is achieved. Senator Lummis introduced a bill to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, proposing the accumulation of 1 million Bitcoin within five years.

H.C. Wainwright also discussed the institutional allocations into Bitcoin ETFs, which could be a major near-term catalyst for the original cryptocurrency. Despite the decent demand since the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, adoption by large wealth advisory platforms has been slow. However, many platforms are speeding up their approval processes for these ETFs, and we might see them launched this year.

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) also highlighted Bitcoin’s low correlation to other assets and potential as a hedge against currency debasement, inflation, and de-dollarization as key selling points.

A major draw was Michael Saylor, who introduced his bear, base, and bull case price targets for Bitcoin at $3 million, $13 million, and $49 million by 2045. These targets assume annual growth rates of 21%, 29%, and 37%, all of which are less than Bitcoin’s 60% annual growth rate over the past decade. Saylor’s analyses are influential in the Bitcoin community, and his targets, though aggressive, are taken seriously.

H.C. Wainwright walked away from the event incrementally more bullish on Bitcoin and the miners, identifying three near-term positive catalysts: the presidential election in November with pro-Bitcoin candidate Trump leading the race, the potential for large wealth advisory platforms to kick off strategic allocations into Bitcoin via ETFs within the next 12 months, and Fed rate cuts.

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