Bullish bets on the Chinese yuan strengthened after a bazooka of stimulus measures led to global investors reallocating funds to Asia's largest economy, while long positions in most other emerging Asian currencies were largely steady, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
Long positions on the Chinese currency hit their highest since late January 2023, with analysts maintaining their bullish streak on the yuan for a fifth consecutive iteration of the fortnightly poll.
Investors started rushing into China's previously beaten-down financial markets after the country announced a slew of initiatives, including interest rate cuts and a $114 billion war chest to boost share prices.
"The stimulus measures came in as a surprise and were larger than expected, given the base was already low. There is a positive bias in the Chinese yuan, so the USD/RMB could head lower over the coming months, and USD/Asia could fall in the medium term," Parisha Saimbi, an EM Asia FX strategist with BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) said.
An oversized 50-basis-point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve last month also helped emerging Asian currencies log gains.
However, a consolidation in the near term is anticipated as "some long Asia FX positions are stretched, particularly in the Malaysian ringgit and Thai baht", according to Jeff Ng, Head of Asia Macro Strategy at SMBC.
Investors will now look forward to a key U.S. jobs report on Friday to assess if the Fed will move towards another outsized rate cut in November, although the likelihood has reduced.
Markets are pricing in a one-in-three chance of a 50-bp cut, down from 49.3% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Analysts maintained their long positions, albeit marginally lower, in the South Korean won, Indonesian rupiah, the Malaysian ringgit and the Philippine peso.
Central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines have kick-started their rate-cutting cycles, and the Bank of Korea is expected to act in tandem as growth concerns continue to linger.
Meanwhile, analysts slightly raised bullish bets on the Singapore dollar and the Thai baht, with the latter lingering near its early 2023 peak.
Singapore's central bank will hold its biannual policy meeting later this month, where analysts expect the policy setting to remain unchanged. The local currency has remained a favourite among investors as easing inflation and stable economic growth have bolstered the city-state's appeal.
Analysts turned slightly bullish on the Indian rupee for the first time since late March.
The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.
The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):
DATE USD/CNY USD/KRW USD/SGD USD/IDR USD/TWD USD/INR USD/MYR USD/PHP USD/THB
03-Oct-2024 -1.14 -0.79 -1.26 -1.08 -0.59 -0.04 -1.18 -0.7 -1.45
19-Sep-2024 -0.67 -0.9 -1.12 -1.18 -0.66 0.33 -1.3 -1.1 -1.33
05-Sep-24 -0.85 -1.09 -1.26 -1.05 -0.77 0.21 -1.46 -1 -1.22
22-Aug-24 -0.62 -0.93 -1.08 -1.26 -0.7 0.21 -1.57 -1.03 -1.16
08-Aug-24 -0.02 0.05 -0.61 -0.02 0.59 0.6 -0.78 -0.29 -0.57
25-Jul-24 1.07 0.79 -0.33 0.35 0.86 0.12 0.39 0.43 0.02
11-Jul-24 1.05 0.87 0.06 0.73 0.68 0.22 1.03 0.86 0.51
27-Jun-24 1.34 1.28 0.8 1.49 0.88 0.46 1 1.37 0.91
13-Jun-24 0.95 0.87 0.62 1.22 0.64 0.37 1 1.23 0.92
30-May-24 1.05 0.72 0.33 0.94 0.53 0 0.81 1.19 1
