The rallying Mexican peso is set to slip in the coming months after a temporary freeze on U.S. tariff hikes against other countries expires next week, a Reuters poll showed. This would end a run-up that brought the currency to its strongest in almost a year last quarter following a sharp drop due to trade concerns at the end of 2024. The Reuters Tariff Watch newsletter is your daily guide to the latest global trade and tariff news. Sign up here. So far, the recovery has been supported by what turned out to be relatively benign new rules for Mexican exports in U.S. President Donald Trump's overhaul of trade, as well as by the dollar's retreat
The peso is forecast to fall by a moderate 5.5% over the next 12 months to 19.80 per dollar from 18.72 on Tuesday, according to the median estimate of 22 FX experts polled June 27-July 2. That new one-year consensus view is the firmest since an estimate of 19.20 per dollar in October. Year-to-date, the Mexican peso is up 13.2%. In the last week of a 90-day pause on steep tariffs for many countries that Trump announced in April, tensions remain high between the United States and China, the European Union and Japan as trade partners work on different proposals. While global frictions could weigh on its volatile currency, Erick Martinez, Latam FX and rates strategist at Barclays said: "Mexico is not subject to reciprocal tariffs, taking pressure off the peso into the global July 9 deadline."
