Money market pricing and short-term trading signals make the idea of the first Bank of England rate cut coming in late summer look like a clear bet. Economists and strategists are predicting a starkly different outcome for interest rates and the pound.
Speculators have topped up their sterling holdings, with so-called net long positions having risen to the most on record, according to the latest CFTC data. Swaps markets price the first 25 basis point (bp) cut no sooner than August.
Sterling is the best performing G10 currency against the dollar so far this year.
The BoE is expected to hold rates at a 16-year high of 5.25% this week, but economists anticipate the first cut far sooner than traders expect.
Bruna Skarica, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), sees softer-than-expected pay data published last week as justifying a rate cut in May.
Barclays (LON:BARC) and Capital Economics are placing their bets on a cut in June.
Traders are focused on the BoE's hawkish rhetoric, according to Rabobank strategists. Economists are querying whether the central bank's inflation forecasting is once again wrong and how quickly policymakers might turn dovish if the central bank's expectations prove incorrect.
The BoE expects price growth to drop to its 2% target in the second quarter but to rebound to almost 3% later in the year.
Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, sees headline UK inflation dropping to 1.6% in April and drifting to less than 1% by the end of the year.
"The Bank might switch quite quickly to worrying about inflation being too low," he said. Dales sees the pound drifting down to $1.20 later this year, from close to $1.27 now.
The turning point for sterling could come as soon as Wednesday, when UK inflation data is released.
Economists polled by Reuters expect inflation to have dropped to 3.6% in February.
"A print closer to 3.2% could lead the (BoE) to soften its guidance language a bit more," Barclays strategists said in a note to clients, which could liven up market bets for a May cut.
Kit Juckes, FX strategist at Societe Generale (EPA:SOGN), is also unsure if sterling can maintain its strength against the dollar after the latest U.S. inflation data was hotter than expected.
"The Fed could go down to 2 cuts (from three currently priced in) and the BoE could go up to 5," in 2024, he said.
"I'm getting my holiday money now."
