U.S. stock futures traded in listless manner Monday, consolidating after the previous week’s gains as investors await more clues over future Federal Reserve monetary policy.
By 06:35 ET (10:35 GMT), the Dow Futures contract was up 10 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 Futures traded 2 points, or 0.1%, higher and Nasdaq 100 Futures dropped 4 points, or 0.1%.
The main Wall Street indices just recorded their best week of the year as recent positive data relieved worries over the prospect of a recession.
The broad-based S&P 500 gained 3.9% for its best week since 2023. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 5.2% and the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.9%.
Recession odds fall Last week’s rally came after a turbulent start to the month in the wake of the disappointing July nonfarm payrolls reading.
However, the non-manufacturing ISM index for July rebounded, with its employment component entering expansion territory for the first time since November 2023, economists noted.
Moreover, retail sales for July beat expectations, suggesting strong real consumption growth, and initial jobless claims have declined over the past two weeks.
Goldman Sachs has revised its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 20% from 25%, citing the recent economic data that shows no signs of a downturn.
The increase was positioned midway between the long-term average recession probability of 15%—based on the historical occurrence of a recession every seven years—and the 35% estimate during the bank turmoil in early 2023.
Investors will focus this week on the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting, which are due on Wednesday, ahead of Friday’s Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
Earnings season to continue The earnings season continues this week, results due Monday from Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW) and Estee Lauder (NYSE:EL).
Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey showed a decline in the proportion of investors overweight in stocks, dropping to 31% from 51%.
The survey also highlighted that 40% of Chief Investment Officers are pushing for CEOs to improve their companies' balance sheets. Despite the ongoing AI boom, the desire for increased capital expenditures has fallen to 24%, the lowest level since November 2023.
Crude looks to Gaza ceasefire talks Crude prices fell Monday on concerns of weaker demand in top oil importer China, with the ceasefire talks in the Middle East remaining in focus.
By 06:35 ET, the U.S. crude futures (WTI) dropped 1.1% to $74.69 a barrel, while the Brent contract fell 1% to $78.88 a barrel.
Both benchmarks fell nearly 2% at the end of last week after data from China showed its economy lost momentum in July, with new home prices falling at the fastest pace in nine years, industrial output slowing and unemployment rising.
Attention turns now to Gaza ceasefire talks, which are set to continue this week in Cairo, following a two-day meeting in Doha last week.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday called the latest diplomatic push by Washington to achieve a ceasefire deal in Gaza "probably the best, maybe the last opportunity" and urged all parties to get the agreement over the finish line.
There has been increased urgency to reach a ceasefire deal amid fears of escalation across the wider region, an upsurge that could impact supply from this oil-rich region.
